Category Archives: The Trait-State Continuum

I have been working on a project designed to measure a certain individual difference in children as early as 5 years of age. There are a number of concerns about the use of self-reports with young children so this has been an overarching concern in this project. To partially address this issue, we came up with a handful of items that would be useful for detecting unusual responses in children. These items might be used to identify children who did not understand how to use the response scale or flag children who were giving responses that would be considered invalid.  There is a cottage industry of these kinds of scales for adult personality inventories but fewer options for kids.  (And yes I know about those controversies in the literature over these kinds of scales.)

Truth be told, I like writing items and I think this is true for many researchers. I am curious about how people respond to all sorts of questions especially silly ones.  It is even better if the silly ones tap something interesting about personality or ask participants about dinosaurs.

Here are a few sample items:

1. How do you feel about getting shots from the doctor?

There has been a lot of commentary about the tone of my 11 December 2013 blog post. I’ve tried to keep a relatively low profile during the events of the last week.  It has been one of the strangest weeks of my professional life. However, it seems appropriate to make a formal apology.

1. I apologize for the title.  I intended it as a jokey reference for the need to conduct high power replication studies. It was ill advised.

2. I apologize for the now infamous “epic fail” remark (“We gave it our best shot and pretty much encountered an epic fail as my 10 year would say”). It was poor form and contributed to hurt feelings. I should have been more thoughtful.

In a blog post from December of 2013, I  described our attempts to replicate two studies testing the claim that priming cleanliness makes participants less judgmental on a series of 6 moral vignettes. My original post has recently received criticism for my timing and my tone. In terms of timing, I blogged about a paper that was accepted for publication and there was no embargo on the work. In terms of tone, I tried to ground everything I wrote with data but I also editorialized a bit.  It can be hard to know what might be taken as offensive when you are describing an unsuccessful replication attempt. The title (“Go Big or Go Home – A Recent Replication Attempt”) might have been off putting in hindsight. In the grand scope of discourse in the real world, however, I think my original blog post was fairly tame.

Most importantly: I was explicit in the original post about the need for more research. I will state again for the record: I don’t think this matter has been settled and more research is needed. We also said this in the Social Psychology paper.  It should be widely understood that no single study is ever definitive.

As noted in the current news article for Science about the special issue of Social Psychology, there is some debate about ceiling effects with our replication studies. We discuss this issue at some length in our rejoinder to the commentary. Continue reading →

Call me Captain Ahab…

This is a dead horse but I got around to writing up some  useful new data in this saga.  Researchers at the University of Texas, Austin tried to replicate the basic survey findings in a large Introductory Psychology course back in the Fall of 2013.  They emailed me the results back in November and they were consistent with the general null effects we had been getting in our work.  I asked them if I could write it up for the Psychology File Drawer and they were amenable.  Here is a link to a more complete description of the results and here is a link to the PFD reference.

The basic details…

There was no evidence for an association between loneliness (M = 2.56; SD = .80, alpha = .85) and the Physical Warmth Index (r = -.03, p = .535, n = 365; 95% CI = -.14 to . Continue reading →

Simine Vazire crafted a thought provoking blog post about how some in the field respond to counter-intuitive findings.  One common reaction among critics of this kind of research is to claim that the results are unbelievable.   This reaction seems to fit with the maxim that extraordinary claims should require extraordinary evidence (AKA the Sagan doctrine).  For example, the standard of evidence needed to support the claim that a high-calorie/low nutrient diet coupled with a sedentary life style is negatively associated with morbidity might be different than the standard of proof needed to support the claim that attending class is positively associated with exam performance.  One claim seems far more extraordinary than the other.  Put another way: Prior subjective beliefs about the truthiness of these claims might differ and thus the research evidence needed to modify these pre-existing beliefs should be different.

I like the Sagan doctrine but I think we can all appreciate the difficulties that arise when trying to determine standards of evidence needed to justify a particular research claim.  There are no easy answers except for the tried and true response that all scientific claims should be thoroughly evaluated by multiple teams using strong methods and multiple operational definitions of the underlying constructs.  But this is a “long term” perspective and provides little guidance when trying to interpret any single study or package of studies.  Except that it does, sort of.  A long term perspective means that most findings should be viewed with a big grain of salt, at least initially.  Skepticism is a virtue (and I think this is one of the overarching themes of Simine’s blog posts thus far).   However, skepticism does not preclude publication and even some initial excitement about an idea.  It simply precludes making bold and definitive statements based on initial results with unknown generality. Continue reading →

Full Disclosure:  I am second author on the McDonald et al. (2014) commentary.

Some of you may have seen that Psychological Science published our commentary on the Birtel and Crisp (2012) paper.  Essentially we tried to replicate two of their studies with larger sample sizes (29 versus 240 and 32 versus 175, respectively) and obtained much lower effect size estimates. It is exciting that Psychological Science published our work and I think this is a hint of positive changes for the field.  Hopefully nothing I write in this post undercuts that overarching message.

I read the Crisp and Birtel response and I had a set of responses (shocking, I know!). I think it is fair that they get the last word in print but I had some reactions that I wanted to share.  Thus, I will outlet a few in this blog post. Before diving into issues, I want to reiterate the basic take home message of McDonald et al. (2014):

“Failures to replicate add important information to the literature and should be a normal part of the scientific enterprise. Continue reading →

Our paper on bathing/showering habits and loneliness has been accepted (Donnellan, Lucas, & Cesario, in press).  The current package has 9 studies evaluating the correlation between trait loneliness and a preference for warm showers and baths as inspired by Studies 1a and 1b in Bargh and Shalev (2012; hereafter B & S).  In the end, we collected data from over 3,000 people and got effect size estimates that were considerably smaller than the original report.  Below are some random reflections on the results and the process. As I understand the next steps, B & S will have an opportunity to respond to our package (if they want) and then we have the option of writing a brief rejoinder.

1. I blogged about our inability to talk about original B & S data in the Fall of 2012.  I think this has been one of my most viewed blog entries (pathetic, I know).  My crew can apparently talk about these issues now so I will briefly outline a big concern.

Essentially, I thought the data from their Study 1a were strange. We learned that 46 of the 51 participants (90%) reported taking less than one shower or bath per week.  I can see that college students might report taking less than 1 bath per week, but showers?  The modal response in each of our 9 studies drawn from college students, internet panelists, and mTurk workers was always “once a day” and we never observed more than 1% of any sample telling us that they take less than one shower/bath per week. Continue reading →

I decided to adopt my 5% suggestion to dedicate a relatively small percentage of one’s research time to replication efforts.  In other words, I spent time this summer and fall working on several replication studies.  Truth be told, these efforts amounted to more than 5% of my time but these efforts have been fruitful in terms of papers. Moreover, these replication attempts were collaborative efforts with graduate students (and some undergraduates).  My major role was often as data analyst.  Indeed, I like to independently analyze the data to make sure that I come up with the same results. I also find data analysis inherently enjoyable and far more exciting than writing papers, editing papers, or dealing with committees. So basically I got to have fun and perhaps make a few modest contributions to the literature.

One replication effort concerned whether we could duplicate the results of 2008 Psychological Science paper about the impact of cleanliness on moral judgments. The original finding was that participants primed with cleanliness were less harsh in their moral judgments than control participants. The first two authors on this paper are outstanding graduate students in my department (Johnson, Cheung, & Donnellan, in press). For those not interested in gory details: We obtained much smaller estimates than the original paper.

Basic design:

This is a follow-up to my January 16 blog post with some new data!  Some of my former students and now colleagues have launched a longitudinal study of college students. In the Fall of 2013 we gave a large sample of first year students the Monitoring the Future goal items.  I thought it would be fun to see what these data looked like and how these goals were correlated with certain measures of personality.  These data are from a school in the Southwest and are drawn from all incoming first-year students.

Students were asked about 14 goals and could answer on a 1 to 4 point scale (1=”Not Important” whereas 4=”Extremely Important”).  Descriptive data for the 14 goals in order of the average level of endorsement are reported below.  I also included the ranking for Millennials as reported in Arnett, Trzesniewski, and Donnellan (2013) and described in my older post.

Table 1: Goals for First Year Students (Unnamed School in the Southwest) using the Monitoring the Future Goal Items

This claim (or some variant) has been invoked by a few researchers when they take a position on issues of replication and the general purpose of research.  For example, I have heard this platitude from some quarters when they were explaining why they are unconcerned when an original finding with a d of 1.2 reduces to a d of .12 upon exact replications. Someone recently asked me for advice on how to respond to someone making the above claim and I struggled a bit.  My first response was to dig up these two quotes and call it a day.

Cohen (1994): “Next, I have learned and taught that the primary product of research inquiry is one or more measures of effect size, not p values.” (p. 1310).

Abelson (1995): “However, as social scientists move gradually away from reliance on single studies and obsession with null hypothesis testing, effect size measures will become more and more popular” (p. 47).

But I decided to try a bit harder so here are my random thoughts at trying to respond to the above claim. Continue reading →